On The Plate ... 3/1/06

Bubble Bath

In the hot tub, poppin' bubbly…

That's what those giddy fools in Tallahassee, College Station and Lexington are singing today.

Well, what do you know…we weren't even a full 24 hours into March and the Madness already had shown its beautiful f'ing face. Glorious. I mean how can you not love it…Coach K takes his team off the floor for "safety reasons" as thousands of meth-ed up Noles fans rabidly stormed the court, Rick Barnes screams at his #1 moron PJ Tucker for temporarily blacking out as the shot clock wound down, and Tubby Smith is once again, at least for the moment, Kentucky's favorite son. These things only happen in March. And I enjoy it greatly.

As for FSU, A&M and UK…in, in and in. Take three at-large bids off the board. The Noles, Aggies and Ashley Judds are officially locks for the Dance.

So, how many spots are still left to be had? Let's break this bitch down with some wicked math. Here it go…

65 teams make the Dance. 31 bids are automatic, 34 are at large.

17 conferences are one-bid only conferences. I'm not going to mention each of them because no one cares. Just trust me. OK, so 65 total bids minus 17 "one-bid conference" bids equals 48 bids still available.

5 conferences are "one-bid unless" conferences. What does that mean? That means if the team that most folks think is going to win the conference tournament doesn't win, then all hell breaks loose. No comprende? Think Gonzaga losing in the West Coast Conference tourney. The Zags are obviously a lock. If they lose in their conference toutney, 2 teams, not one (Gonzaga), will make the Big Dance. Get it? Got it. My five "one-bid unless" conferences are as follows…

Atlantic 10 (George Washington)
Big West (Pacific)
Patriot (Bucknell)
West Coast (Gonzaga)
WAC (Nevada)

If any of the aforementioned donkeys lose in their respective conference tourneys, consider throwing this entire column out the window. If they win, I'm on point. Let's pretend, for now, that I know what I'm talking about and they all win. Money. 48 available bids minus 5 "one-bid unless" bids equals 43 bids left.

Now buckle in. There are 9 conferences that have a legit chance to get more than one team into the Dance no matter how their conference tournament plays out. Who are they? In alphabetical order…ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Colonial Athletic, C-USA, Missouri Valley, Pac-Dime and the SEC. Now within these 9 conferences there are clearly teams that are already locks. Obviously. Respect the locks…

ACC: Duke, UNC, NC State, BC (4)
Big East: UConn, 'Nova, Pitt, WVU, Georgetown, Marquette (6)
Big 10: Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan (6)
Big 12: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma (3)
Colonial Athletic: George Mason (1)
C-USA: Memphis (1)
Missouri Valley: Wichita State, Missouri State, Creighton (3)
Pac-Dime: UCLA, Washington, Arizona (3)
SEC: LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama (4)

Add all them MF'ers up and we have 31 locks.

43 open bids minus 31 locks equals 12 open spots. So there it is…12 bubble spots are left for the rest of the masses. And who among the masses is knocking on the door for a bid?

ACC: FSU, Maryland, UVA, Miami
Big East: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Big 10: Indiana
Big 12: Texas A&M, Colorado
C-USA: UAB, Houston, UTEP
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Pac-Dime: Cal
SEC: Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
The rest: Hofstra, UNC-Wilmington, Air Force

That's 22 teams for 12 spots. After last night's results, we can whittle this number down some more. Actually, even before last night's chaos, several of the aforementioned teams were looking more "lock" than "bubble" relative to their bubble peers…

Syracuse - 19-9, 7-7, RPI: 28, SOS: 8. The 'Cuse is a lock if they beat DePaul on Thursday night to get to .500 in the Big East. They finish the season hosting 'Nova in the Dome on Sunday. Obviously, a win against the 'Cats would stamp their Dance card and bump them up the seeding pecking order. But that's not going to happen, so I'm going to stop talking about it now.

Seton Hall - 17-10, 8-7, RPI: 57, SOS: 39. Tuesday night's giant W over Cincinnati in the first ever East Rutherford Dance Bid Decider pushed the Pirates to the head of the bubble class. They are guaranteed to finish no worse that 17-11, and more importantly .500 in the conference which they most likely will as they head to Pitt on Friday night for the Panthers senior night. No worries, lock 'em up, they're in.

Cincinnati - 18-11, 7-8, RPI: 32, SOS: 3. Yes, 'Nati's loss at Seton Hall on Tuesday didn't help their resume. And I know that they finish the regular season at home versus West Virginia on Saturday. Win against the Mounties and the Bearcats dance. Lose, and that'd be three L's in a row heading into the Big East tourney. Yikes? Not yikes. I think Cincy still dances based on their recent performances: a mauling of the Orange in the Carrier Dome and their 2-point heartbreaking loss to the 'Cats. And yes, 7-9 in the Big East, with the schedule 'Nati has played, is worthy of dancing, especially compared to some of the mutt squads sitting on the bubble (see ACC, CAA teams).

Indiana - 16-10, 8-7, RPI: 44, SOS: 25. After Wednesday night's win at Purdue, the Hoosiers are a lock. Period. Even if they lose at Michigan on Saturday, finishing 8-8 in the Big Ten gets it done. After losing 7 of 8, it's quite impressive that Mike Davis & Co. have rallied off the deck to win 3 in a row, including the monstrous home W over the Spartans. Props given.

Two more from the MVC - Southern Illinois : 19-9, 12-6, RPI: 43, SOS: 64 and Northern Iowa : 20-8, 11-7, RPI: 27, SOS: 45. Smart people say five from the MVC are going to the Dance. Who am I to argue? Put an asterisk next to this theory. One of these teams might get clipped if a low hanger from a biggin' conference (Maryland or Vanderbilt) get hot. For the moment, however, the MVC gets five.

Cal - 17-8, 11-5, RPI: 61, SOS: 83. I'm including these donkeys simply because folks out west will bitch and moan if the Pac 10 only gets three teams into the Dance. So, in order to quiet the left coast softies I'm throwing the Golden Bears into the mix. In all honesty, the Bears are Dance-worthy with wins over UCLA, Washington and Arizona. Should the GB's win on Thursday night at home against the Bruins to complete the season sweep, then they are not only a lock, but they might be a #7 seed. Leon Powe be nasty.

Arkansas - 20-8, 9-6, RPI: 74, SOS: 72. If the Hogs hadn't locked up a bid by winning back to back games over Florida and Alabama at home, they made it a certainty by winning at Tennessee last Saturday. Stan Heath's boys took care of Mississippi State on Wednesday night and end the season at Georgia playing simply for a better seed in the SEC tournament and Big Dance.

12 available bids minus 8 more locks leaves 4 open spots. Now add FSU, Texas A&M and Kentucky to the lock list. And what do we have left…

We have one spot. Who is going to make their best case to be Dance worthy?

UAB - 19-5, 10-2, RPI: 53, SOS: 174. Beat Memphis on Thursday night, and they punch their ticket.

Colorado - 18-8, 8-7, RPI: 52, SOS: 93. The Buffs couldn't stay neck and neck with Texas A&M in the "big win" column as they got hammered by Kansas on Wednesday night. Now 'Rado MUST win at home against Iowa State on Saturday and win at least two in the Big 12 tournament to have a shot.

Maryland - 17-11, 7-8, RPI: 51, SOS: 11. The Terps need to beat UVA on Saturday and get to the ACC tourney final. Period.

UNC Wilmington - 22-7, 15-3, RPI: 38, SOS: 111.Why is UNCW's RPI so high? Is the Colonial Athletic Conference that money? If they win the CAA tourney it won't matter.

Hofstra - 22-5, 14-4, RPI: 40, SOS: 160. Why is Hofstra's RPI so high? Is the Colonial Athletic Conference that money? If they win the CAA tourney it won't matter.

Vanderbilt - 16-10, 7-8, RPI: 60, SOS: 41. I'm allowed to be biased, right? Right. If the Dores beat Tennessee in Memorial Gym on Saturday at 4:00pm EST, Vandy will not only have won four of their last 5 but they will be 17-10, 8-8 overall. Unlike many of their bubble brethren, the Dores will have two very quality wins…Georgetown and Tennessee. If the Dores win one game in the SEC tournament, why wouldn't that last "one spot" slipper fit on the kids from Music City? The kids are good dancers. Believe me.

Keep the faith, as always.