On The Plate ... 2/14/06

Separation Days: Part 1 of 5

BIG EAST

Following Monday night's Ali/Frazier-esque slugfest in Philly, I figured it was only appropriate to start my conference rundowns with the best conference in the nation. And for a little sugar on top of last night's Battle Royale, West Virginia heads to East Rutherford on Tuesday night for an interesting matchup between two teams on opposite ends of the conference chatter spectrum. The Mountaineers need to win on the road for the second time in 3 days in order to keep pace with 'Nova for first place in the Big East. On the flip, Seton Hall needs to severely rebound after being drawn-&-quartered 42 ways by the Huskies last Saturday night at home.

Let's chatter… the big five are locks: 'Nova, UConn, WVU, Pitt and Georgetown with the first three in a pseudo-two-week round robin to see who ends up as conference champ. No comments on that jazz yet. There is still a ton of ball to be played between the biggin's. As for a Dance card tally, I can't see any justifiable reason why the Big East would not get 8 teams into the Dance considering that the caliber of ball being played in the Feast is so superior to every other conference, except perhaps the Big Dime. So, with five in as locks, the rest of the conference is hustling to fill 3 spots by the time Selection Sunday rolls around. Who do we got? From the top down…

The Hall currently sits at 6-4 in the conference, 15-7 overall, #34 in the RPI and was riding a 6-game W streak before getting face-planted by the Huskies. A rebound W in Tuesday night's game versus WVU would push the Pirates into borderline lock territory for the Dance, if, of course, they finish no worse that 9-7 in the league. That's a big "if." The size win at NC State is clearly the feather in the Hall's Dance cap, but don't overlook the importance of their W at the 'Cuse and their sweep of Rutgers. The latter 3 wins clearly give them an edge over Syracuse, Rutgers and Louisville (b/c they lost at the RAC). If the Hall fails to hipcheck the Mounty's on Tuesday, they still have ample opportunity to get to where they need to be. After facing off with the Mountaineers, the Hall's remaining five games look like this: the Irish at home, at St. John's and DePaul, host 'Nati and go to Pitt. While a rational person might expect the Hall to score 3 straight W's heading into the Cincinnati game, I wouldn't get too nutty about putting all of my Seton Hall chips in the middle of the table. Why? I don't know if chalking up a Hall W over a beaten down Irish team is very wise. The Irish are surly. And the Hall is always capable of folding. Long story short…the Hall is set up nicely, but still has plenty of business to take care of before they start waltzing.

Prior to Sunday, I would have said that of the remaining Big East squads vying for a Dance card, I'd feel the most comfortable about Marquette's chances compared to anyone else. Why? They beat UConn. Yea, I know that their RPI of #35 is lower than the 'Cuse's (#28), the Hall's (#34) and Nati's (#32). But none of those comparable teams have a W like Marquette's UConn W. So I gave them the nod. That was prior to Sunday when Marquette dropped a game at the RAC. Yea, I also know that no one wins at the RAC, but Tom Crean's kids would have been a lot more Dance worthy had they scored that W. You see, Marquette's stretch run is not easy. The Golden Eagles have two golden chances this week to strengthen their resume after that crushing L to the "I Douby-lieve"s: Georgetown visits Milwaukee on Thursday and Pitt visits on Saturday. Marquette is 16-8, 6-5 right now. A split gets them much closer to being in, than out. However, after the two old school beasts roll through town, the Eags have to go on the road for two tough games: at the surly Irishmen and at old C-USA arch nemesis Louisville. A visit from Providence finishes out the season. I was totally impressed with Marquette after watching them beat 'Nova on the floor, not the scoreboard. The question is: can Marquette beat teams on the floor and scoreboard over the next three weeks? Can they hold court at home or are they going to have to go on the road to bolster their chances? Losing four in a row is not out of the question.

It really is amazing to think that, of all people, Terrence Roberts saved, and I mean S-A-V-E-D saved, Syracuse's season with that ridiculous three-pointer at the buzzer to beat Rutgers in the Carrier Dome. Without that shot, the Orange would be losers of 6 of their last 7 and be 2 games below .500 in the conference. But they aren't and they're not, although they're not exactly sitting pretty. It's put up or shut up time for Old Jimmy Boeheim's lads. At 17-7, 5-5, and with zero wins of any significance under their belt, the Orange need to win four of their last six. And the winning will have to start in the Carrier Dome, a place where the typically dominant home Orange have been nothing short of very weak this year. Like I said, put up or shut up time. On Wednesday, 'Nati cruises to the land of orange for a serious "bubble off." The loser finds itself on a boat sailing away from Bubble Land. Then on Sunday, UofL rolls into the Dome. (Don't count out the Cards yet. More on them in a bit.) And it don't stop with the Cards…WVU cruises into Syracuse the following Monday. So 3 games, all at the Dome, to make or break the season. Anything short of 2-1 over that stretch may punch the Orange's ticket to the NIT. Why? Because the Orange then have to travel to the MCI Center to face the Paranoia, Chicago to face a determined DePaul team and end up back at the Dome against 'Nova in the season finale. Ouch.

Fixated directly in the midst of everyone's bubble hopes is Cincinnati. Yep, poor old 'Nati, the team with only eight scholarship players, the team that has gone 3-7 since losing their best athlete - Armein Kirkland, the team that has zero recruits signed for next year because of the uncertainty surrounding interim coach Andy Kennedy, the team that won't go away. Heading into the "Rumble for the Bubble" on Wednesday in Syracuse, Cincy is 15-9, 5-6 and clinging to life. But clinging is better than letting go. Give credit to Kennedy - his kids are still going hard night after night. And that is exactly what Jihad, Hicks & Co. are going to have to do on Wednesday night. Go hard…the Bearcats can not afford to lose. This is the game of their season. Why? A W avoids being swept by the 'Cuse, another team on the Big East bubble. It also gets UC back to .500 in the conference with 4 games to go. And two of the final four games are winnable. Not easy, but winnable. With a final conference record of 8-8, I think the Bearcats might just squeeze in. Why? They own a huge W over LSU, as well as solid W's over fellow bubblers Marquette and Vanderbilt. Tough to argue with head to head W's. So what's the path the B'Cats must walk to highstep? Two W's…Game 1: this Friday Providence travels to the Fifth Third Arena. (Who was the jackass that named a bank "Fifth Third"? Sorry.) Game 2: on February 28, 'Nati travels to Seton Hall for another bubble gutbuster. Must win games. Period. The Bearcats other two contests? They host Villanova and the Mountaineers. Double tough. The UC season starts and ends on Wednesday at the Carrier Dome.

Wait, what about…

Louisville. If you're wearing a Cards windbreaker, you may want to start saying rosaries. The scenario is simple…at 16-8 overall and 4-7 in the Big East, U of L needs to win at least 4 of their final 5 games. Losing last Monday in Cincinnati was nothing short of crushing. Why? Because in order to win 4 of their last 5, the Cards will have to win at either WVU or UConn. Yikes. And it ain't like the rest of the schedule is a cakewalk - at the 'Cuse on Saturday, and hosting DePaul and Marquette. Is it impossible for the Cards to get nutty and win 4 in a row? Not at all. Is it a longshot? Indeed. The faith I put in the Cards after their tough L at 'Nova has diminished with their L at 'Nati and their squeaker W at South Florida. Could the Cards finish 7-9 in the conference, win 3 games in the Big East Tournament and go Dancing? Sure. But first, Rick & Co need to make sure they actually make it to NYC to do so.

Rutgers. Say what? Say there's a shot. Check this insanity…the Rut Rut Goose is currently 14-10, 4-7 with five games to go. And their last five look very very alive…St. John's, at South Florida, at Georgetown, South Florida, and at St. John's. Now, if you look closely, you'll probably notice that the money game in the five game set is the one in the middle at the MCI Center. (Note: a game I will be in attendance for.) There is no reason why Rutgers should not sweep SJU and USF. So, the Hoya game looms as the potential W that not only gets the Scarlet Knights to 9-7 in the conference but also boosts the Rut's weak #77 RPI after scoring a quality win over a Top 25 RPI team. 9-7 in the Big East, mid-50's RPI? Dancing? Stay tuned.

Next up…Big Ten.