On the Plate … 3/1/05

Anyone Up For Some Games That Matter?

Here's what I know…

1. It's March 1.
2. For the first time in my life, I'm painfully tired on March 1.
3. Instead of drinking a Dale Jr, I'm drinking tea with honey in it.
4. Why? Because Dale Jr's go poorly with having to be awake in less that 4 hours. (It is currently 10PM and, yes, I am exaggerating.)
5. Over the weekend, I drank enough to kill a modestly populated town.
6. Because of my self-indulgences, I didn't make it off the couch. Thus, no column.
7. I've had the song from The Little Mermaid in my head all day, I don't know why and I'm a little frightened by it.
8. The CSG beat SI.com's Seth Davis to the press with a "let's do the math behind the tournament" column. Don't believe me? Go to Yahoo Sports and check out Davis' latest column. It's painfully, in fact eerily, similar to a column yours truly had posted over a week ago. (I move markets, kids.) Your welcome, Seth.
9. I will never understand the RPI. And I don't think I want to.
10. I have unfinished business from the end of last week…Big 10, Big 12, C-USA, Pac-Dime and SEC. To the hardwood…

So far this week…
…Kids storm the court after Clemson beats Virginia Tech at the buzzer
…The Red River Shootout on the hardwood has Texans freaked out
…Minnesota at Penn State is significant

Yep, it's March First…

For the first time all season, the Big 10 matters. Why? Not because of Illinois, but because Indiana and Minnesota are vying for a spot in the Dance and a lot of other bubble-buddies would love to see them lose. Personally, I think both teams are pretty bad and would easily take an 8th team from the Big East (hello, West Virginia) or a 6th from the ACC (a 7-9 N.C. State) over a 4th Big 10 school. Nevertheless, the Hoosiers, after Sunday's tremendous W over the Spartans, are more than alive and kicking. Check it…they are 14-11 / 9-5 in the Big 10. (And, as I write, they're losing at Wisconsin.) So what? 14-11? I know…I wrote them off two weeks ago. But check out 6 of their 11 L's…UNC, UConn, Kentucky, Charlotte (at the buzzer), Notre Dame and Illinois. Not exactly a bad list to lose to, nor can anyone else claim to have played that schedule. Here's my take. Indiana is going to lose tonight at Wiscy but bounce back and beat Northwestern on Saturday to get to 10-6 in the conference. Minnesota will beat Penn State in Happy Valley Wednesday to also finish 10-6 in the conference. Head-to-head the Hoosiers and Gophers split. But IU has wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State whereas 'Sota only beat Wiscy. And the Gophers can't compete with IU's strength of schedule. IU gets the nod. Shocking, I know. However, a loss in the Big 10 tournament by either, or both, could leave the Big 10 with only getting 3 bids.

Question: how far has the Big 10 fallen when a 10-6 conference record doesn't guarantee a NCAA berth? Answer: Pretty far. If either team finishes with 10 conference wins and does not make the tournament, it will be the first time since 1985 that a Big 10 team with 10 wins doesn't dance.

As much as I hate Mike Davis, I'd love to see IU in the tournament because I love their team. I think their freshmen are sensational.

For the first time all season, the Big 12 is flexing its muscle. OK, maybe it isn't the first time. But the Oklahoma State at Kansas game on Sunday was by far the best game of the year. By far. It was easily a Final Four caliber game. I have no hesitancy in saying that if both teams play like that in the tournament, the Big 12 is going to be happily represented in St. Louis. But what about being represented in the Dance? Although UT faithful are weeping in their Lone Stars after losing at home to the Sooners, I believe the Longhorns are in. They finish at Oklahoma State on Saturday and will lose to end up 19-10 / 8-8. Normally I'd say they were squarely on the bubble. But I think the committee is going to give UT the nod after several key injuries really disrupted the team's flow in mid-season. Iowa State's meltdown last week hasn't hurt the Horns either. With back to back losses to Texas A&M and Nebraska, the Cyclones are back on the bubble after looking like a lock following their win over Kansas two Saturdays ago. Nevertheless, their fate is in their hands. Two games left - Missouri, at Colorado. If they win them both, they are 17-10 / 9-7 and have wins over KU, OU, Texas, and Texas Tech. In other words, they're in if they win. On the outside looking in…A&M. A&M won't be standing outside too long if they win in Stillwater Wednesday night against Okie State. A miracle tomorrow night coupled with a win over Baylor on Saturday puts the Aggies at 20-7 / 9-7. And folks, if that happens, let the hoops rivalry between UT and A&M begin. Why? Because the Aggies will have stolen the Horns dancing shoes.

For the first time all season, C-USA is simple. Four C-USA'ers will dance. Memphis is out. Unless they win the C-USA tournament. Obviously, but worth noting that it could happen because the tournament is at The Pyramid. Houston is out too. But a huge congrats to Tom Penders for putting the bandit back in bandito. The Cougars are on the rise. And as if you didn't know…I've already ordered some UH gear on-line.

For the first time all season, I am going to say something nice about the Pac-10. On Sunday, UCLA impressed me. They dominated Notre Dame. I was shocked. Frankly, I think everyone was pretty shocked. Granted the Irish looked like absolute donkey, but whatever. Ben Howland is a remarkable coach. Give him two years at a program and then watch the F out. After beating the Irish, I think UCLA is in as long as they finish up their Pac-10 business with two wins at home against Oregon State and Oregon. Four teams from the Pac-Dime are going to dance. Not good.

For the first time all season, I'm nervous about Vanderbilt, and consequently the SEC. I'll admit that I've been pretty complacent this year regarding the Dores. My attitude has been due to a combination of last year's success, fighting machines, Villanova's current success and a notion that Vandy would get their act together just in time to squeeze into the Dance. The kicker is that I'm not sure Vandy's act ever got together. That being said the kids still have a shot. And no room for error. Dores have two games left - South Carolina at The Gym Wednesday night, at LSU on Saturday. Vanderbilt must win them both. If they do, they'd be 19-11 / 7-7. Pretty good, right? Right. But they also need to get some help. From who? Mississippi State. They need the Bulldogs to lose at home to Alabama on Saturday. If the Bulldogs don't beat the Tide, they would be 21-9 / 9-7. Despite losing head to head to Miss State, the Dores might get the nod over MSU based on having just beaten an extremely hot LSU team that swept Miss State. But maybe not, which means Vandy is going to have to win at least one game in the SEC tournament. Remember last year's SEC tournament? Me too. Keep the faith.

Wednesday night bubble importance…

South Carolina at Vanderbilt - Revenge is mandatory.
A&M at Oklahoma State - Miracles do happen. Just not often in Stillwater…
Minnesota at Penn State - Yep, I'm not joking.
G-town at UConn - Hoyas need it bad.
G-Tech at Wake - A win makes Tech a lock.
NC State at UVA - The DTA ain't dead yet.

Weekend prep…

After the Hokies' loss at the buzzer to Clemson, the Maryland at Virginia Tech game looms HUGE. Buckle in Terps fans. A win and you're in.