On the Plate … 2/14/05

All A Kid Wants To Do Is Some Math

Have you ever seen the movie "The Matrix Revolutions"? It's the worst movie ever made, but I have watched it at least 3 times in the last week. Why? Because it is the current story of my life. Say what? How? Here's the analogy…I am Neo. College basketball is my "Zion." And the machines, aka work, is doing its best to destroy Zion. Not good. Not good at all.

Check these stats…

No CSG column in 14 days. Why? CSG rolled up back-to-back-to-back-to-back 9:00PM nights last week. Translation? I worked my f'ing balls off. And as much as I wanted to write a column every night on every game during Rivalry Week, I couldn't because I didn't have the juice. And nothing gets me more pissed off than not having any juice, especially during Rivalry Week. Hopefully, and I stress hopefully for the well being of humanity, "Zion" is safe for the time being and I can get my Neo on.

I mean all I ever wanted to do was give a State of the Union. For those still holding their breath waiting for the Union to get stated, you can stop holding your breath. The Union will get addressed. Right after I do some math. Yes, some math. After all, I am Neo. And I want to get my GD math on. Feel me…

(I can't believe February is half over and this is my first column of the month. Deep apologies. I'm not handling any of this very well at all.)

Welcome to CSG Calculus 101… March is right around the corner. Time to figure out who has the muscle and who has to hustle…

There are 65 bids to the Dance. 31 are automatic, 34 are at-large. The 7 major conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Conf USA, Pac 10 and SEC) make up the majority of the at-large bids. So, who, as of today, has the inside track to putting on Dancing shoes?

Because it is never easy to predict who will win each of the major conference tournaments, let's take the automatic bids associated with each of those 7 conferences and throw them into the at-large pool. In other words, instead of saying the ACC has 1 automatic bid and "X" at-large bids, we'll say that the ACC has "Y" at-large bids that includes the automatic bid from winning the ACC tournament. What's the point? This allows us to pick an aggregate number of teams from each conference without having the automatic bid screw thing up. (Have I lost you yet? Hang in there.)

OK, so on that basis, we would subtract 7 bids from the 31automatic bids and add those 7 to the at-large pool. In other words, the major 7 conferences have no automatic bids. The only automatic bids that matter are those that come from small conferences that will get one or maybe two teams in at the max. So now we have 41 at-large bids to work with. Now the fun…

Who are locks based on today's records?

ACC
Duke, UNC and Wake are in. Maryland, after sweeping the Devils, is in. (The roads to finishing "in" or "out" will be discussed it great detail later this week in the State of the Union mini-series.) 4 teams in.

Big East
Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, BC, Georgetown. I can't believe the Hoyas are 8-3 in the Big East. Silliness pie is what that is. 5 teams in.

Big 10
Illinois, Michigan State and Wisconsin. 3 teams in.

Big 12
Kansas, Okie State, Texas Tech (especially if they beat Kansas on Big Monday), OU. 4 teams in.

Conference USA
Louisville, Charlotte, Cincinnati. 3 teams in.

Pac 10
Arizona, Washington. 2 teams in.

SEC
Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi State. 4 teams in.

Add them up. 4+5+3+4+3+2+4=25. What does that mean? That means take 25 of the 41 available at-large bids off the board. Consider them taken.

16 spots left. Before I go back to the big conference "bubble teams" that I did not include in the above 25, we have to consider those small conferences that may get two teams in. What conferences? I circled 6 that have a legit shot at getting two. Who are they?

Atlantic 10 - GW, Temple
Big West - Pacific, Utah State
Horizon - Wisconsin-Milwaukee, UWGB
Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Southern Illinois
West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
WAC - Nevada, UTEP

(I love the fact that the A-10 is in the small conference discussion. What a hideous league.)

Now the available at-large pool moves from 16 spots to 10 spots because of the little guys getting in the way. God bless them.

So, 10 spots to split up among the big 7 conferences. Who's in the mix?

ACC - Georgia Tech, Miami
Big East - Villanova, Notre Dame
Big 10 - Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio State
Big 12 - Texas, Iowa State, Texas A&M
Conf USA - DePaul, Memphis
Pac 10 - Stanford, UCLA
SEC - LSU, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

17 teams to fill 10 spots. My current theory is that G-Tech, Nova and the Irish lead this pack due to the overall strength of the ACC and Big East. I can't imagine that the committee would take a 5th Conf USA team over a 7th Big East team. Not this year. The biggins from the east are too good.

From the pool above, I think G-Tech, Miami, Nova, ND, Ohio State, Texas, Iowa State, Cincy, Stanford and LSU get in. That would leave the final breakdown at the ACC getting 6, the Big East getting 7, the Big 10 getting 4, the Big 12 getting 6, C-USA getting 4, the Pac 10 getting 3 and the SEC getting 5.

Seems doable, don't it?

Obviously, there is tons of hoops to be played. I mean TONS. And that's the beauty of the second half of February and early March…every game counts. I would know. My two teams are in my bubble pool. Hell, they are always in the damn bubble pool. But I wouldn't trade it for anything I don't think. As much as I hate not being able to swallow or catch my breath when the Cats play in late February, there is something fanatically amazing about it too. It's the constant struggle. Sure, it'd be great to make it over the hump a little more often than the Cats have recently. But when you get a season like Vanderbilt put together last year that ends in the Sweet 16 to the eventual national champs, it's unbelievable. And totally worth the pacing and sweating and cussing from the prior 4 weeks, or in Nova's case, 6 years. The feeling will be that much sweeter come Selection Sunday when Greg Gumbel says, "The #7 seed in the South is the Villanova Wildcats." Whether I hear those words this year or in 10 years remains to be seen. Time to buckle in, right?

P.S. State of the Union conference-by-conference breakdown coming at you over the next two weeks. Thanks for hanging in with the CSG while he's trying to deal with the machines. Zion is too damn important for Neo to stop fighting.

P.S.S. For the record, I went to the Syracuse at Villanova game last Saturday in Philly at the Wachovia Center with my parents and my brother. 3 thoughts - 1) I now hate everything from Syracuse, NY 2) The Wachovia Center is money and pours a delicious Dale, Jr. 3) Apparently my Mom likes to fight.