On The Plate ... 10/12/07

Parlaying the Night Away

Kumar: Man, I blew it. I blew it, man.
Anthony: Kumar, what were you doing in the freezer?
Kumar: I don't know, man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?
- Bottle Rocket

Consider me Kumar because I definitely blew it, and have definitely lost my touch. Let's get this straight: I've got no idea what I'm doing and have gotten killed because of it the last two weekends. Two pieces of advice: never go big on Michigan State and never go size on Kansas State. Two mutt squads. Can you say "reload"? Yep. Reloaded and looking to make some noise this weekend. And, because I've got a tiny, simple brain, I've convinced myself that solely sticking to parlays this weekend is the best way to get back on my feet. I know I'm an idiot, just work with me. Bet small coin, but wheel a bunch of games. That's how I'm playing this weekend because, other than BC giving 14 at Notre Dame and Northwestern giving 6.5 at home against Minnesota, I'm not feeling a lot of conviction regarding what's out there. So what's out there? Check it…

Saturday, October 13

Purdue at Michigan (-5.5) - Purdue has a great passing offense, and Michigan can't stop anybody who plays offense circa 2007. In other words, Penn State does not count. That being said, with Henne back at the helm, I feel like Michigan is due for a breakout "we're back, kind of" game, and think that this is it. And yea, I know the Wolves felt crystal light last week against Eastern Michigan. Forgetaboutit. Take Michigan…they're on a mission to play the Buckeyes for all the loot in the Big Dime.

Virginia Tech at Duke (+14.5) - Craziest thing I've ever advocated…Tech 21, Devils 7…that half point is gonna make some folks happy in parlay land. Why? Because the game will be 21-0 in the third quarter, the Hokies D will have dominated, Beamer will sit his big boys, play some youngsters on both sides of the ball, and the El Diablos will score late. Just a hunch. I've felt it all week.

Minnesota at Northwestern (-6.5) - The Gophers are 0-2 outside of the MetroDome…a loss to Florida Atlantic (ouch!) and a 20-point loss at Indiana. Unlike big time programs that have let downs after huge W's, I think the Wildcats ride the mo' from their wild W over the Spartans last week and crush Minnesota.

Alabama at Ole Miss (+6.5) - Following back to back losses to Georgia and FSU, the Tide looked dazed and confused in their "way-too-close-for-Bama-fan-comfort" W over Houston last week in the 'Loose. Are the wheels coming off the Sabanation wagon? Umm, frankly, I don't think the wheels were ever on too tight to begin with. A last-second win at home against Arkansas and a road W in Nashville are the Tide's marquee wins. Not too impressive. And now the Tide hits the road for the third time this season (1-1 including the loss in JAX to FSU) in Oxford against an Ole Miss team that is 1) playing very tough at home (ask Mizzou and Florida) and 2) desperate for a big win. I like the Rebs and the points.

Tennessee at Mississippi State (+7) - SEC trap game #1. Be careful Vols. The Bugs Bunny Giant's team of bandits is coming off an emotional high after trouncing the Dawgs in Knoxville. The Vols are 0-2 on the road this season, getting routed at Cal and at Florida. Now, I know that MSU is not Cal or UF but Starkville is not Knoxville and that's the point. A road SEC game is a road SEC game. Tough. Period. And MSU has been playing much, much better than the team most people remember as the squad that got crushed by LSU in the first game of the year. The W at Auburn was mind-boggling, they were right with South Carolina in Columbia into the 4th quarter and they smoked UAB last weekend at home. I'll telling you, if I were a Vols fan, I'd be very anxious right now. I like the Bulldogs and the seven points.

LSU at Kentucky (+9.5) - SEC trap game #2. Be careful Bayou Bengals. Cowboy Les and his boys are coming off the Mount Everest of emotional games - the W over the Gators. And now they have to travel to Lexington where the 'Cats have had 10 days to prep after their loss at South Carolina. Do I think the Tigers might start a bit sluggish? Yes. Do I think UK can move the ball on the Tigers? Surprisingly, yes. Woodson is that good. Is Kentucky two defensive touchdowns scored by the Gamecocks away from being undefeated? Yes. Whoa. That's a whole lot of xrap. Indeed it is, but do I think the 'Cats D can stop the Tigers? Not a chance. The Bayou Bengals will pound the ball on the ground all day long and pull ahead by 2 touches in the 3rd quarter. However, I'm feeling like a late UK touchdown will beat the spread. Do yourself a favor, buy a point to 10.5 and take UK just in case LSU is up 17 late.

Texas A&M at Texas Tech (-10) - Does anyone think that the Aggies players are going to rally around Caoch Fran after all of the distractions that have happened this week? Me neither. Tech murders the Aggies like Vick murders dogs. (If you don't "get" get that, look up the story about the Vick T-shirt that T-Tech students made regarding A&M. I bought one.)

Boston College (-13.5) at Notre Dame - Does this really need an explanation? BC scores on every possession, and the Irish put a goose-egg on the board. Oh, and UCLA blows.

Wisconsin (+7) at Penn State - After losing at Illinois, the Nittany Lions rebounded with a 27-7 win over Iowa last week. Well played. How will the Badgers respond after losing at Illinois last week? Especially in Happy Valley? Great f'ing questions, CSG. Wiscy lost its first conference game last weekend, and knows that one more basically eliminates them from any Big Ten championship chatter. The Badgers will be ready to go. Unfortunately they'll lose, but they'll beat the spread. For the record, Penn State should have beaten the Illini. Wisconsin shouldn't have.

Missouri (+12.5) at Oklahoma - This is way too many points to be giving a team with a great offense. Sure, the Tigers have had trouble stopping teams with an offense circa 2007. In other words, Nebraska does not count. I feel like Mizzou is ranked #12 because they are undefeated in a season when there are only a handful of undefeated teams at the halfway mark, and not because people think that they are good. Well, I do. I think they are much better than people think. Also, expect a little letdown from the Sooners after the emotional W over the 'Horns last week. The Sooners will win, but it will be very close. Take the points.

Oregon State at Cal (-14) - The Beavers are 0-2 on the road this year…a 34-3 mauling at the hands of Cincy and a 44-32 L at 'Zona State. The last time I checked the Bears had a better offense than those two teams combined. Cal in a romp.

Auburn at Arkansas (-3) - I love the game. I'd hate to have to bet it. With a gun to my head, I'd take the Hogs, but I'm very wary of the War Eagle. They have the look of a team with serious purpose after the last two weekends.

P.S. - What are the green stickers for on the back on NFL quarterbacks helmets?